I wanted to comment on Natroba using Benzyl Alcohol as a vehicle. It seems there is a number of different reasons why it could be included. This is from Claude.
Preservative:
It has antimicrobial properties, helping to prevent bacterial and fungal growth in the cream.
This extends the shelf life of the product.
Solvent:
It can dissolve certain ingredients that might not be soluble in water or oil alone.
This helps in creating a stable and homogeneous formulation.
Local anesthetic:
Benzyl alcohol has mild anesthetic properties, providing a slight numbing effect.
This can help reduce itching or minor skin irritations.
Penetration enhancer:
It can slightly enhance the penetration of other active ingredients through the skin.
Viscosity modifier:
It can help adjust the thickness and texture of the cream.
Emollient:
In some formulations, it may contribute to the moisturizing properties of the cream.
FDA approval:
It's generally recognized as safe (GRAS) by the FDA for topical use in limited concentrations.
We interviewed Cipher management the day of the announcement. It was via zoom… You could definitely see the excitement. 1. Any thoughts on potential loss of efficacy of the scabies treatment as it grows in use (long-term). 2. Are you aware of any comps in various stages of clinical trials?
1. It's an insecticide so presumably they can get resistant to it, but if natroba gets used so much the mites get resistant to it then I'll have 4 houses and won't care.
2. Not aware of other comps in clinical trials. Didn't look that far, would be curious to know as well.
Also, the expanded scope of pharmacy thing is a bigger deal than I thought. It's not just BC that allows nail fungus topicals to be prescribed. 3 other provinces do too. And Ontario and Quebec are in discussions to dignificantly expand their minor ailments list. In one province that list includes prescriptions for head lice, and Ontario has said head lice is one of the conditions being discussed for additions to the list. Cipher incredibly well positioned to benefit from prescription drugs being effectively sold OTC.
I think the drug works, and I made a mistake to overlook Moberg's ability to (mis)manage. Cipher isn't Moberg, but I'm not in Craig's head, so don't know. I sold Moberg at a loss but continue to hold Cipher
You don't think Moberg is interesting at the current price? They hold more than half the market cap as cash and at their low cash burn rate have about four years to figure out what to do with MOB-015. Where is the risk there that I don't see?
Question - if when Terclara is launching in the US, is it binary, in that either Moberg does it all or Moberg outsources it? Or is there a hybrid option whereby it could share the workload with a partner or partners? Additionally, as fantastic as it would be for Cipher to participate in this, the competition to win that priviledge must be steeper by orders of magnitude yea?
Not binary, they're planning to sell to podiatrists themselves and find a partner to sell to dermatologists. So yes a hybrid. Cipher getting that derm license is definitely low probability, but now possible so I thought it important to add.
Moberg coming to USA is contingent on the last phase 3 read-out going not-catastrophic. Probability of catastrophic read-out is very low though, since they've done phase 3s before that were fine and they changed very little of the conditions in this one.
I wanted to comment on Natroba using Benzyl Alcohol as a vehicle. It seems there is a number of different reasons why it could be included. This is from Claude.
Preservative:
It has antimicrobial properties, helping to prevent bacterial and fungal growth in the cream.
This extends the shelf life of the product.
Solvent:
It can dissolve certain ingredients that might not be soluble in water or oil alone.
This helps in creating a stable and homogeneous formulation.
Local anesthetic:
Benzyl alcohol has mild anesthetic properties, providing a slight numbing effect.
This can help reduce itching or minor skin irritations.
Penetration enhancer:
It can slightly enhance the penetration of other active ingredients through the skin.
Viscosity modifier:
It can help adjust the thickness and texture of the cream.
Emollient:
In some formulations, it may contribute to the moisturizing properties of the cream.
FDA approval:
It's generally recognized as safe (GRAS) by the FDA for topical use in limited concentrations.
Very useful, thanks!
any time. Your writing on the subject has been tremendous. thank you for your efforts.
Very well done
Thanks Jake
Great post. Thanks for the update. Also long CPH.
We interviewed Cipher management the day of the announcement. It was via zoom… You could definitely see the excitement. 1. Any thoughts on potential loss of efficacy of the scabies treatment as it grows in use (long-term). 2. Are you aware of any comps in various stages of clinical trials?
Thanks, Maj.
Happy to hear they were excited too!
1. It's an insecticide so presumably they can get resistant to it, but if natroba gets used so much the mites get resistant to it then I'll have 4 houses and won't care.
2. Not aware of other comps in clinical trials. Didn't look that far, would be curious to know as well.
Also, the expanded scope of pharmacy thing is a bigger deal than I thought. It's not just BC that allows nail fungus topicals to be prescribed. 3 other provinces do too. And Ontario and Quebec are in discussions to dignificantly expand their minor ailments list. In one province that list includes prescriptions for head lice, and Ontario has said head lice is one of the conditions being discussed for additions to the list. Cipher incredibly well positioned to benefit from prescription drugs being effectively sold OTC.
Great post!
Thanks Dean
Any thoughts on the loss of Moberg's drug in the US market? How does this impact Cipher's Canadian sales of MOB-15?
I think the drug works, and I made a mistake to overlook Moberg's ability to (mis)manage. Cipher isn't Moberg, but I'm not in Craig's head, so don't know. I sold Moberg at a loss but continue to hold Cipher
You don't think Moberg is interesting at the current price? They hold more than half the market cap as cash and at their low cash burn rate have about four years to figure out what to do with MOB-015. Where is the risk there that I don't see?
Thank you for this.
Question - if when Terclara is launching in the US, is it binary, in that either Moberg does it all or Moberg outsources it? Or is there a hybrid option whereby it could share the workload with a partner or partners? Additionally, as fantastic as it would be for Cipher to participate in this, the competition to win that priviledge must be steeper by orders of magnitude yea?
Not binary, they're planning to sell to podiatrists themselves and find a partner to sell to dermatologists. So yes a hybrid. Cipher getting that derm license is definitely low probability, but now possible so I thought it important to add.
Moberg coming to USA is contingent on the last phase 3 read-out going not-catastrophic. Probability of catastrophic read-out is very low though, since they've done phase 3s before that were fine and they changed very little of the conditions in this one.